Yes, it is Safe to Visit Cabo San Lucas

Actually, without a doubt, lets start with the #1 killer of Americans: doing nothing, getting fat, or depressed. Then, dying of heart disease (#1killer in US).  We also now have a huge spike in suicides and drug overdoses. Whatever it is, it is still better to get out and do something than doing nothing. So the State Departments best warning should be to avoid your own home, go do something, anything.

That aside, numbers are funny things.

32% of all US travelers outside the US that die non-natural deaths will die in Mexico. Sounds scary? Of course, this is useless information unless placed in context. Mexico is by far and away the country more Americans travel to than any other country. In fact, 32% of all American traveling out of the US, go to Mexico (source US Office of Travel and Tourism Industries) So it is not surprising that 32% of all non-natural deaths of U.S. citizens outside this country occur in Mexico. That is the exact number that travel there. For the math impaired, this is a baseline of zero.

Not a Single America Tourist Has been Killed in Los Cabos Due to Violence

It is at least true that violence has up ticked in some areas near Cabo San Lucas in a recent spike.

It is also true that not a single America tourist has been killed as a result – and Cabo gets 3.5 million tourists per year.

It is also at least true that Mexico has a higher per capita murder rate than the US.

It is also true that an American is statistically safer in Mexico than in the US.  This is because they tend to be in tourist areas in Mexico.

Cabo is safe, really, the reported incidents have taken place outside of Cabo San Lucas and are directly related to those engaged in drug activity (the incident of a body in CBO San Lucas is believed to have be as a result of an incident elsewhere).  Important Note to Self:  Do not trade in drugs.

Drowning Is The True Worldwide Travel Risk.  Most tourism is water related.   Most Americans are not experienced in the ocean and many are in poor physical shape.  Add booze.

Of the 3.5 million visitors each year, the only American deaths that have happened in Los Cabos are the occasional ones of people drowning off the beach (Drowning is the true real travel risk to tourists, and the media never mentions this!). I know of four exceptions in ten years – an ex pat killed his wife, the police killed a person on pcp, and an American killed another American in a hotel, and a man pushed his wife off of a cruise ship).

In fact, Cabo in August has had more tourism this year than in the past 3 years.

I think, for instance that Birmingham Alabama is considered dangerous but I know that there are dangerous areas in all areas to avoid. I live in Northern California, and we have had 87 freeway shootings this last 1 ½ year within 30 miles of where I live. Not more than a blip in the news. Two people were shot in the street one block from where I work,  a week or so ago. Certainly no warnings to avoid the San Francisco Bay Area that I have seen.  I work in downtown San Jose California, check out the recent news:  https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/17/san-jose-shooting-leaves-2-with-life-threatening-injuries/ – https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/14/san-jose-police-investigate-drive-by-shooting-that-injured-5-people/

We could, after all, continue our drive in the US towards public ignorance of world affairs and culture, poor education, while simultaneously sucking all joy out of life, locked in our homes. Oh yes, we could continue to use “antidotal evidence” to support prejudice and race baiting. Antidotal evidence of death and injury can be submitted for any location in the world.  It is interesting, though, how easy it is to see it where we want to see it, and not see it where we do not want to see it.

On the other hand and sadly, we in the US do not live in a particularly safe country and certain parts of it are far from it (Denmark is the safest country in the world). We in the US experience gun violence not seen anywhere else on earth. Tijuana, the busiest border city in the world is generally considered a dangerous city, yet has a lower per capita murder rate than many US cities, including for instance, Houston.

Also, some countries including the US,  seem to have made a lot of people unhappy in the last few years.  Mexico has not been a target of terrorists.  Terrorists actually target tourists.

To my knowledge, no Mexican has ever walked into a school or mall with a gun and shot scores of people. Killings by drug dealers are generally of other drug dealers, not tourists and limited to localized areas of a big country.

One interesting item is that Department of State travel warnings are issued for a whole State. The Baja California is about the same size as New York.  So, Chicago is dangerous – avoid Illinois. Houston is dangerous – avoid Texas. Oakland/Richmond/Compton is dangerous – avoid California. New Orleans is dangerous – avoid  Louisiana.  Detroit is a dangerous place – avoid Michigan. Saint Louis is a dangerous place – avoid Missouri. Birmingham is dangerous –  avoid Alabama.  My, that seems like a large part of the US.  Have not seen these warnings.  We all know that when in any metropolitan area, there are places to stay away from.  This is true in every country.

The real story is always the same: You should not leave your common sense at home when traveling.